We're walking into a demographic timebomb!

[Treffie]

The population for the UK is predicted to reach 77 miilion by the year 2050, and I was wondering of any of you guys have any reliable sources as to what the Muslim population may be?

It's very difficult to find any objective population predictions for Muslim demographics, but I found this bit of info which I think maybe an accurate figure.

According to some sources, 22% of the population of the UK will be Muslim (approx 17 million).

Russia will be much worse.



August 17, 2008
Fitzgerald: The Muslim population of Russia, and the future
The Muslim population of Russia has gone up 40% since 1989. Meanwhile the Russian population of Russia has gone down. There are now 25 million Muslims in Russia. And the Central and East European Affairs editor of The Economist has suggested in print that by 2015, 40% of the Russian army may be Muslim

By 2050, the Muslim population of France will reach 50%.

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/022251.php

[Loki]

FREE ZUNDEL NOW!!!!11 :rolleyes:

Seriously, this is scary stuff. Finding solutions to this quagmire would require all our resources and attention. It's time to stop wasting time on petty detail. Those who declare to care about European preservation should get to the task and get their priorities right. In all likelihood it's already too late, and impossible to turn back the tide. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

Start having children. :thumb001:

[Aemma]

Start having children. :thumb001:

Yep but more needs to be done in order to support our folk to want to make babies and support those children and families. People have to reassess their priorities in the end. In my own community I see way too many people preoccupied with making money, ridiculous amounts of money by times, and not necessarily not having children but perhaps having less than what their energies can muster simply because they are chasing that almighty dollar and burning out from that end of things. Or alternatively, some families choose to have larger families but then hire au-pairs from places like Indonesia or Guatemala to come raise their children while both parents work at their high-roller careers.:rolleyes: There is something seriously messed up with the concept I'm afraid. Consumerist ideology has taken hold of us to a degree that has become difficult to control, or I would even hazard to say more than difficult to control, it has insiduously made its way into the Western World's M.O. to the degree that it is now uncontrollable. It has taken a strong foothold in our way of life that few people are in any position to be able to break free from it.

All of this to say that before we can start making these babies and redressing the imbalance, our own folk communities have to be awakened to the (perceived) threat and mobilise. This doesn't happen without some political action though. From something as basic as seriously considering for whom one votes (party and/or leader) and GOING OUT TO VOTE (another huge problem these days imo) to becoming a member of a lobby group which supports families, and anything in between will go a certain length of the way--how far depends on our respective individual and collective commitments to the effort.


A few thoughts...

Cheers!...Aemma

[Freomæg]

According to some sources, 22% of the population of the UK will be Muslim (approx 17 million).
I'm afraid to say I predict it to be worse than that. In another thread (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=41046&postcount=15), I put together a calculation:


- So if we take it that there 2.4 million Muslims in Britain and 65% of them are 'young', that makes 1.56 million.

- According to this, there were 15 million citizens under the age of 19.

- So approximately 10% of all UK 'youth' are Muslim.

So if Muslims are outbreeding Britons by 3:1 (Britons 1.3, Muslims 4), that means 4 million newborn Muslims in the first generation, 8 in the second, 16 in the third. Concurrently, the 13.5 million British youth will have dropped to 3.7 million in the same 3 generations .

So in 3 generations (or, say 60 years as Muslims procreate so young) we're looking at Muslim youth outnumbering British/other youth by at least 4:1 . Or in only one generation, Muslims will make up 50% of Britain's youth!


As for low birthrate among Britons, I don't think it can so easily be put down to a lack of values. In some cases I think it is an excess of values which is the problem. Of course many are materialistic and self-centred, but many think as I do (whether consciously or subconsciously): Britain is no longer a desirable place, and now is not a desirable time to raise children. Perhaps that inner-racialist speaks to our subconsciousness, telling us that a multicultural society is an unhealthy environment to subject children to.

[Skandi]

Children.. Yeah well, that involves finding a partner who is suitable, and having a job. Both of those are rather difficult, if you are being picky about the partner that is.

[Aemma]

Perhaps that inner-racialist speaks to our subconsciousness, telling us that a multicultural society is an unhealthy environment to subject children to.

Yes and I can appreciate that sentiment Cythraul, really I can. BUT (of course there's a but... ;)), isn't it this kind of a defeatist attitude that is perpetuating the problem? I don't see it as a proactive solution myself but moreso as a throwing-in of the towel which won't help us in the long-run. Besides I'm just dying to be an Apricity Auntie! What're y'all waiting for? It's the Spring!! Go do what bunnies do! lol ;) :D

;)...Aemma

[SwordoftheVistula]

Perhaps that inner-racialist speaks to our subconsciousness, telling us that a multicultural society is an unhealthy environment to subject children to.

That's the problem with putting two different groups in the same society, especially in a democracy/republic whose direction which is decided by number of votes. You've got people like you described, mixed in with people who don't even consider such things as how they will afford to take care of the child or whether their partner will stay with them, or worse consider it a meal ticket.

[Freomæg]

Yes and I can appreciate that sentiment Cythraul, really I can. BUT (of course there's a but... ;)), isn't it this kind of a defeatist attitude that is perpetuating the problem?
Perhaps Aemma. I'm not attempting to excuse myself, just offering an alternative to the theory that all white Europeans are blinded by materialism.

In any case, I find low birthrates to be more of a symptom rather than a cause of Europe's fall, therefore I believe it's more important to address the reasons why Europeans aren't procreating rather than to just procreate in the name of fixing things. Basically, I don't feel we're going to be able to fix low birthrates without addressing the fundamentals problems European countries face - multiculturalism, debt slavery, political correctness, spiritual apathy, and overriding pessimism.

[Atlas]

The global muslim birthrate in Europe has collapsed since the last years. The explosion of muslims is more likely due to the huge immigration since 9/11 and the A-stan and Iraq war.

You see, in 2009 French hoods, you don't see anymore "momma" from Africa or Maghreb with 10 kids from 10 different fathers. No one anymore can afford this, no matter how fine the welfare is.

[Lenny]

It's always unwise to assume that current trends will continue indefinitely. The sky-high immigration rate will inevitably go down, and we already see nonEuropean TFRs fall dramatically among even the first British-born generation.



Anyway, as for the fool's hobby of speculating about the distant-future; Here is one scenario (which is realistic, IMO, based on what seem to be the current trends and which assumes a modest decline in migration rates will set in soon enough):

Population of the UK, 2009
7 million nonEuropeans
54 million Europeans

Assume a "mere" 150,000 net in-migrants (non-European) per year
Assume a sustained 2.5 TFR for nonEuropeans
Assume a sustained 1.6 TFR for Europeans



Population of the UK, 2050
17.5 million nonEuropeans, and
40 million Europeans


And here are the scenarios worked out by the professional demographers (though no mention whatsoever of ethnoreligious distinctions of course):

The current base projection (the 77-million figure)
# GAD Principal 2006-based population projection. This is the most widely used main population projection, which shows the population of the UK growing by 350,000 - 445,000 a year, adding 10 million people to reach 70.75 million in mid-2031 and rising to 77 million in 2050.The TFR (total fertility rate) varies from 1.84 to 1.92 children per woman during this period, and [i]net inward migration ranges between 190,000 and 240,000 a year. It shows that without a change in population policy, our numbers could reach 85 million in 2081.


Hypothetical scenarios
# GAD Zero Migration variant population projection. This assumes zero migration (or net zero migration, in which the population growth effect is neutralised by balancing inward and outward migration in numerical and age-related terms). With TFR stabilising at 1.84 in 2018, population peaks at 63.8 million in 2031 and decreases to just over 62 million by 2050.

# GAD Low Fertility variant population projection. This shows what would happen with a lower TFR of 1.64 from 2015 - population just over 72 million in 2050.

# GAD Low Migration variant population projection. This shows what would happen with net inward migration stabilising at 130,000 a year from 2014 - population just over 73 million in 2050.

# GAD High Fertility, High Life Expectancy, High Migration variant population projection. This 'worst case' scenario shows population passing 87 million in 2050 and reaching 108.7 million in 2081


Scenarios for population decline
# OPT Population policy projection 05A03
UK population would reach 53 million by 2050, TFR 1.74, net emigration -82,000 a year.
# OPT Population projection 05B03
UK population would reach 53 million by 2050, TFR 1.55, zero net effect (numerically balanced) migration.
# OPT Population projection 05C03
UK population would reach 53 million by 2050, TFR 1.12, continued net immigration of 130,000 a year.

http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.projection.html